For nearly four decades, Jaén was considered a “socialist vote granary,” where support for the PSOE in every regional election was taken for granted. This loyalty was reflected in the constant presence of socialist governments in the Palacio de San Telmo.
However, since the 2018 elections, the provincial political dynamic has changed dramatically. The balance has tipped towards the Popular Party, which is emerging as the most voted force in the upcoming elections on May 17, according to the latest polls. Surveys suggest that the PSOE could record its worst historical result in the community, including the province of Jaén.
In the previous legislature, the Popular Party obtained 6 Andalusian parliamentarians for Jaén, compared to 4 for the PSOE and 1 for VOX. Current projections indicate that the PP will maintain its 6 seats, with possibilities of securing a seventh. Meanwhile, the PSOE faces the risk of losing at least one of its parliamentarians. The emergence of VOX in other autonomous communities suggests similar behavior in Andalusia, with the possibility of increasing its representation at the expense of the PSOE.
“"Everything seems to indicate that the PSOE will gather the least support of all elections held in the community. Also in the province of Jaén."
The Jaén Merece Más party, despite its influence in some municipalities where it governs in coalition, does not appear to be achieving good results in the polls. The situation in the provincial capital, following a vote of no confidence supported by a relevant political figure to remove the previous Popular Party mayor, could affect its electoral performance. The possible decline of this party would benefit the PP, as it is considered the natural destination for its voters.
