Climate data projects a generalized increase in extreme heat days in the province of Jaén for the period 2031-2060. Municipalities currently experiencing around one week per year with temperatures of 40 ºC could exceed a full month under these conditions.
According to the Geoportal Mapa Clima of the Junta de Andalucía, a public tool analyzing historical evolution and climate projections, a notable difference is observed between the historical period 1985-2014 and the forecast for 2031-2060.
In the historical period, municipalities like Guarromán and Bailén recorded an average of nine days per year with 40 degrees, while Andújar had seven and Marmolejo eight. Other locations such as Torreblascopedro and Carboneros registered eight annual days.
However, projections for 2031-2060 show a drastic change. Guarromán and Bailén would go from nine to an average of 32 days per year with 40 degrees, and Linares from nine to 31. Marmolejo would rise from eight to 30 annual days.
The increase will also be significant in Jabalquinto (from nine to 30 days) and Torreblascopedro (from eight to 29). The capital, Jaén, will go from four annual days in the historical period to a projected 17 days, more than quadrupling its frequency.
Even mountain municipalities will experience a considerable increase. Hornos will go from three days to 14, Beas de Segura from four to 17, and Santiago-Pontones from one day to eight annual days. Alcalá la Real will increase from two to 10 days.
This climate change implies not only higher maximum temperatures but also a greater repetition of intense heat episodes, with consequences for health, energy consumption, and agriculture.
