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Seville to lose 54,000 students in a decade due to falling birth rates

The report projects a significant decrease in Secondary and Baccalaureate education, while nurseries will see increased enrollment thanks to free tuition and a slight birth rate rebound.

Generic image of empty classrooms in an Andalusian school.
IA

Generic image of empty classrooms in an Andalusian school.

Schools and institutes in Seville will lose 54,000 students over the next decade due to persistently low birth rates, according to a report projecting a scenario of reorganization for the educational system.

The province of Seville faces a significant reduction in its student population, with a projection of 53,926 fewer students between 2025 and 2035. This decline, which primarily affects Secondary education (with 25,000 fewer students) and Primary education (22,484 fewer), is a direct consequence of the low birth rate that has affected all of Spain for over a decade.
The report, prepared by the Ramón Areces Foundation and the European Foundation Society and Education, indicates that the birth rate in the province has fallen by more than half since 1975, settling into figures of ultra-low fertility. Factors such as the high cost of housing and the postponement of motherhood contribute to this trend, which is not expected to change significantly in the coming decades.
In contrast, the first cycle of Early Childhood Education (0 to 3 years), provided in nurseries, will see an increase in enrollments. An increase of 18,853 schoolchildren is expected in this stage by 2035, largely driven by the free tuition plan implemented by the Regional Government of Andalusia and a slight rebound in births.
Compulsory stages such as Primary and Secondary education (ESO) will suffer the most significant drops. ESO will lose 24,941 students, while Baccalaureate will see its enrollment reduced by 6,179 students, with Almería being the only Andalusian province projecting a slight increase in this latter stage.
Faced with this scenario, the report warns of the need for a profound reorganization of the educational system's material and human resources. While initial stages will require expansion, later stages will confront the challenge of managing excess supply and potential unit closures.
The Andalusian Ministry of Education has already begun to implement measures, such as reducing the student-to-teacher ratio in three-year-old early childhood education for the 2026/27 academic year, creating 30 new units in the province of Seville. This measure aims not only to adapt to the declining birth rate but also to offer more individualized attention.

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