Government stability in Andalusia for the next legislature could hinge on a single seat in the province of Córdoba. A recent GAD3 poll, published by ABC, indicates that this parliamentary position is contested between the Popular Party (PP) and Vox, potentially swaying the balance towards an absolute majority or necessitating coalition agreements.
The PP, led by the president of the Junta de Andalucía, aims to retain the absolute majority achieved in 2022. The poll projects a range of 54 to 56 parliamentarians for the PP across Andalusia, meaning a majority is within reach but not entirely guaranteed. In Córdoba, the PP could secure between 6 and 7 of the 12 available seats, either maintaining its previous result or losing one.
The contested seat in Córdoba could be critical for Vox, which, according to the same poll, might secure two parliamentarians, one more than in the 2022 elections. Meanwhile, the PSOE is expected to maintain its current three seats, and Adelante Andalucía, which includes Izquierda Unida, would retain its single seat. The uncertainty in Córdoba is mirrored in Granada, where another seat is also in play between the PP and the PSOE.
“"From 54 to 55, there is more than just a unit. There can be an absolute majority and the abysmal difference of governing with stability and the calm of having the investiture and budgets secured, versus the need to negotiate them with another party... which can make it very difficult in terms of concessions."
As the elections draw near, the president of the Junta de Andalucía and candidate for re-election will visit the province of Córdoba in the final week of the campaign. This visit will include the region of Los Pedroches, a location that has held significance in previous campaigns. Separately, the leader of Vox is scheduled to appear in Las Tendillas on Tuesday.
