The INE has confirmed the concerning demographic outlook for Córdoba. The national statistical body estimates that between 2026 and 2041, the province will see its population decrease by 33,228 inhabitants, falling from the current 773,022 to 739,794 by the specified date. This decline contrasts with the projected population growth for Spain as a whole.
The INE's report, based on recent trends and expert opinions, details that the population loss is driven by a negative natural balance. An estimated 77,937 births are expected compared to 125,839 deaths over the analyzed three-quinquennia period, resulting in a deficit of 47,902 people.
This negative balance will not be offset by a positive migration balance. Although 202,183 people are expected to arrive, 216,857 residents are projected to leave the province. Internal migration, with a deficit of 16,094 individuals, is influenced by economic weakness, prompting many Cordobans to seek employment elsewhere.
The arrival of foreign citizens will contribute a positive balance of 30,768 inhabitants, with 81,630 arrivals anticipated against 50,862 departures. However, when this figure is combined with losses from the natural balance and internal migration (a total of 63,996 citizens), the final decrease stands at 33,228 residents.
Unlike Córdoba, in Spain, the negative natural balance is compensated by the positive evolution of international migration. The report indicates that the province ranks low nationally in the proportion of foreign residents to the total population, as they tend to seek more prosperous locations.
If this trend is not reversed, the population loss will exacerbate existing problems. In the last fifteen years, Córdoba has lost 29,199 residents, a 3.6% decrease, while Spain experienced a 6.6% increase.
