The State Meteorological Agency (Aemet) presented its 2026 summer forecasts for Andalusia this Monday in Seville, indicating a 50% probability of warm temperatures in most of the territory and 60% in the eastern third. Juan de Dios del Pino, Aemet's territorial delegate for the community, detailed the summer forecast, along with the spring meteorological balance and the effects of the 'El Niño' phenomenon in the region.
The meteorologist explained that for June, July, and August, there is a 50% chance of temperatures being "warm" in most of Andalusia, a percentage that rises to 60% in the eastern provinces such as Granada, Jaén, and Almería. Regarding precipitation, the expert noted "total uncertainty" for the summer period, although he specified that in Granada and Jaén, the probability of a rainier summer reaches 40%, while in Almería it rises to 50%. "In Granada, Jaén, and Almería, there is less uncertainty than in the western part," he indicated, calling these figures "low probabilities".
Regarding the expected thermal anomalies, Del Pino detailed that anomalous temperatures will be recorded in the southern third, with an anomaly between zero and half a degree in the central strip and "a little more, between half a degree and one degree in Sierra Morena". "Compared to their average, it will be hotter in the Sierra Norte de Sevilla than in the plains of Seville," he added, while the extreme south of Andalusia will experience lower temperatures than usual.
The spring of 2026 in Andalusia has been the fifth warmest since 1961, classified as "very warm". This contrasts with the data for the whole of Spain, which experienced its second warmest spring on record, considered "extremely warm". Del Pino attributed these regional and national figures to climate change, recalling that 2024 was the warmest year globally.
"We are increasing temperatures by 0.28 degrees, almost three tenths of a degree per decade," lamented the meteorologist, who warned that "we will well exceed one and a half degrees by 2050". He also pointed out that "of the 30 warmest springs, 20 are from the new millennium". Although March "was not very warm", it remained "above average", while April has been "the warmest, being the second warmest, surpassed only by that of 2023".
The expert detailed that the coldest day regionally was March 10th, with an "average temperature of 7.1 degrees across Andalusia". Conversely, last May 31st was the warmest, with an anomaly of over 6.2 points. "Specifically, in Seville, 40.5 degrees were recorded," he specified.
Del Pino reflected on the fact that Andalusia is warming more than the rest of the country, as the peninsula "is warming more in the south than in the north". The provinces of Cádiz, Granada, and Almería show the highest positive anomalies, around 0.7 and 0.8 degrees. "Andalusia is clearly warming more than the rest of Spain based on data from recent years," the territorial delegate stated.
The Aemet territorial delegate warned that the 'El Niño' phenomenon is not expected but has already formed, and the focus is now on analyzing "what effects it may have in different places". He explained that Pacific surface waters are warmer than normal and that "seawater has a very high specific heat, accumulating a lot of energy", which "takes a long time to release and return to its equilibrium state".
Del Pino specified that the Pacific has warmed significantly, which will affect the climate for a prolonged period. Similar phenomena in 1982 and 1997 led to droughts on the peninsula, and when it rained, precipitation occurred "torrentially". According to Aemet's calculations, "it is already evident that 'El Niño' has formed".
However, the meteorologist estimated that it will have a "limited and inconsistent direct impact on Spain", given that "it is so far away that we do not clearly see the signal of whether it rains more, less, or if the temperature rises". He added that it "has an effect on temperatures in the form of summers with more extreme heat", although he considered that the hottest summers are not so much due to this phenomenon as to climate change.
