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Andalusian Elections: Key Data in Maps, Graphics, and Polls

Detailed analysis of electoral data, historical results, and predictions for the regional elections in Andalusia.

Facade of the Andalusian Parliament under bright sunlight.
IA

Facade of the Andalusian Parliament under bright sunlight.

Andalusia is gearing up for key regional elections that will shape the political future of the region, with the PP seeking to retain its absolute majority and the PSOE facing a potential historic low.

The regional elections in Andalusia this Sunday conclude the electoral cycle of the past six months, placing the right-wing bloc in a position to complete a full set of regional governments. The polls will resolve two major questions: whether the PP can revalidate its absolute majority or if the PSOE, which governed the region for 36 years, can salvage its results.
In the 2022 Andalusian elections, the PP secured a historic absolute majority with 58 seats in the Regional Parliament (out of 109), while the PSOE recorded its worst result with 30 deputies. Vox gained 14 parliamentarians, and the parties to the left of the PSOE, Por Andalucía (5) and Adelante Andalucía (2), completed the chamber. The threshold for an absolute majority is 55 seats. Following these results, Juanma Moreno was invested president for a second term, after his first mandate (2018-2022) governing in coalition with the now-defunct Ciudadanos and with parliamentary support from Vox.
All surveys and predictions have shown a consistent trend since the elections were called: the PP might revalidate or lose its absolute majority, the PSOE would continue to lose seats, Vox would grow slightly, and Por Andalucía would remain largely the same. However, while the popular and socialist parties, along with Por Andalucía, have stayed within relatively similar ranges in recent months, the far-right has slowed its ascent, and Adelante Andalucía has improved its prospects.
The pre-election poll by GESOP for Prensa Ibérica placed the popular candidate very close to 55 seats, but without them being assured due to the advance of the far-right. In parallel, the PSOE candidate, María Jesús Montero, was heading towards the PSOE's worst result in what was once its stronghold, with the two parties to her left benefiting from this decline. According to the prediction market Predilect, the PP could narrowly revalidate the absolute majority (55 seats), while the PSOE would lose two more deputies. Vox would slightly improve its 2022 result but would not be decisive for Moreno's investiture. The socialist decline would lead Por Andalucía and Adelante Andalucía to increase their representation. The most probable scenario for government formation is a coalition between PP and Vox, given that Moreno does not have an absolute majority guaranteed, which is the second most likely option.
Similarly, the average of published polls would place Moreno with a tight absolute majority of 55 seats. The PSOE would drop from 30 to 28 deputies, while Vox would increase from 14 to 15 parliamentarians, who would not be decisive for governance. Por Andalucía would maintain its 5 representatives, and Adelante Andalucía would rise from 2 to 5 seats.
The 2022 Andalusian vote map showed the PP's historic absolute majority was built transversally across all eight Andalusian provinces, colored blue for the first time. Even Sevilla, the PSOE's great stronghold where the PP was the fourth force in 2018, turned blue for Moreno. The PP was the most voted party in 567 municipalities out of 785, the PSOE in 205, Por Andalucía in 11, and Ciudadanos in two. Vox and Adelante Andalucía did not win in any town. The PP won in all eight constituencies, exceeding 40% of the vote in each, with the socialists taking second place and Vox third.
The PSOE has won 10 out of 12 Andalusian elections, half of them with an absolute majority. The PP first won in 2012, but a pact between socialists and IU prevented them from reaching the regional government. They achieved this in 2018, when the PSOE won but the emergence of Ciudadanos and Vox allowed Moreno to unseat the left from power for the first time. The socialist party achieved its best result in the first regional elections in 1982 with almost 53% of the vote, while in 2022 it recorded its historical minimum with just over 24%. Four years ago, Moreno led the PP to its record in Andalusia with 43.5% of the vote.
The distribution of the last seat in at least six of the eight provinces (Sevilla, Málaga, Córdoba, Cádiz, Huelva, and Granada) could influence the final outcome. In 2022, the PP secured four of these last seats (Sevilla, Málaga, Córdoba, Cádiz), the PSOE took three (Huelva, Jaén, and Granada), and Vox won the one in its stronghold, Almería. This means the 'remainders' benefited the PP and disadvantaged the left four years ago.
Socialists governed Andalusia from 1982 to 2018, often with absolute majorities. By far, the longest-serving president was Manuel Chaves, who led the Junta for 19 years. Juanma Moreno, the first PP regional president, is now the second-longest serving and could reach 12 years if re-elected.
Andalusia has registered its lowest participation rates when regional elections have been held alone, without coinciding with other electoral calls. There is a 23-point difference between the participation record (78.1% in 1996) and the lowest figure (55.3% in 1990). The percentage obtained in the last elections (56.13%) is the second-worst participation rate in a regional election.
Barring surprises, Andalusia is the last stop before the electoral 'super year' of 2027, which will include municipal, regional, and general elections. Thus, the Andalusian polls will determine the conditions under which the parties, and the left and right blocs, will face the next electoral challenge.

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