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La Voz de Andalucía

Popular Party Nears Absolute Majority in Andalusia, According to Centra

The pre-electoral study, released less than two weeks before the elections, places the PSOE as the second force with its worst historical forecast.

Generic image of a ballot box in an Andalusian polling station.
IA

Generic image of a ballot box in an Andalusian polling station.

With just days remaining until the elections in Andalusia, the Center for Andalusian Studies (Centra) has released a new pre-electoral survey, outlining a clear winner, albeit with a tight margin for an absolute majority.

The Popular Party is projected to secure between 42% and 43% of the votes, translating to 53 to 56 seats in the Andalusian Parliament. The absolute majority stands at 55, indicating that the party could govern alone or require support from another political force. In this scenario, Vox, with 14.4% of the votes, would obtain between 17 and 19 representatives, nearly a percentage point more than in the previous legislature.
This projection for the Popular Party is slightly lower than Centra's previous survey, conducted on April 17, which estimated 42.8% of the votes and 57 seats. In the last legislature, the presidency of the Junta de Andalucía was held with 58 seats. The estimate for Vox also shows a slight decrease compared to a month ago.
Meanwhile, the PSOE is positioned as the second option, with 20.1% of support, representing its worst historical forecast in the region. This 4% decline would distance it from the 30 seats obtained in the previous legislature, with a current estimate of a maximum of 27. This figure is also lower than the public poll from a month ago, which gave it 21%.
On the left side of the political spectrum, trends are different. The Por Andalucía coalition would maintain its presence with 7.9% of voting intention and between four and seven seats, similar to its current five. Adelante Andalucía is the formation experiencing the most significant growth, rising from 4.6% to 6.9% of the votes, which would translate into five deputies, three more than in the previous legislature. Parties like PACMA and Se Acabó La Fiesta would not secure seats, as they would not reach the 2% threshold of votes.
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"Six out of ten Andalusians had already decided their vote before the campaign began, which would significantly reduce the influence margin of the upcoming days of rallies and debates."

a Centra spokesperson
According to respondents, the electoral program is the most influential factor in voting decisions (22.7%), followed by management performance (20%) and the candidate's persona (17.4%). The willingness to vote is high, with an average of 8.6 out of 10 in participation intention, despite the abstention rate of 41.6% in 2022.
Regarding the distribution of seats by provinces, the Popular Party would dominate across Andalusia, securing up to nine seats in Málaga and Seville, seven in Cádiz and Granada, six in Almería and Córdoba, and between five and six in Huelva and Jaén. The PSOE would obtain up to four in Granada, Málaga, and Seville, and a maximum of three in the rest. Vox would reach four in Almería, three in Málaga, and up to two in the other provinces. Adelante Andalucía would concentrate its representation in Seville and Cádiz, with two seats in each, and in Málaga, with one.
The survey was conducted between March 27 and April 16, involving eight thousand adults residing in Andalusia, after the elections had already been called.

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