The study conducted by the University of Granada (UGR) concludes that the inviability of reopening the Guadix-Baza-Lorca railway line, which connected Almería, Murcia, and Granada, "is not consistent" and is based on data "with serious reliability and representativeness problems." UGR specialists have identified "numerous weaknesses" in the report commissioned by the Ministry of Transport and Sustainable Mobility.
The research team, led by Professor of Financial Economics and Accounting Andrés Navarro, and comprising experts in Construction Engineering, Urban Planning, and Civil Engineering, all from the UGR, states that "a new feasibility study can and should be prepared to address the identified weaknesses and shortcomings." They note that the original report, published in November 2023, only completed the first of the four planned phases (technical, environmental, and economic viability).
The researchers criticize that the Ministry's study was based on an "obsolete" regulatory framework and "has not taken into account the commitments made by the Government of Spain to the European Commission." Furthermore, it applies a "restrictive methodology that minimizes benefits and maximizes barriers," presenting "strategic and contractual inconsistency, along with methodological deficiencies in economic valuation."
The UGR's analysis also points to a "deterministic approach to orography," which considers the terrain's complexity an insurmountable obstacle, ignoring Spanish engineering expertise. They criticize a "fragmented" territorial assessment that does not consider the 2030 mobility strategy, studies by the Granada Provincial Council on depopulation risk, nor reports from Green Peace. Errors in applying cost ratios, demand and revenue estimation, and cash flow calculations are also cited.
“"The conclusion of inviability is not consistent, as it is based on numerical results with serious reliability and representativeness problems."
The UGR specialists cite examples of lines, such as the high-speed lines Antequera-Granada, Madrid-Extremadura, and Vitoria-San Sebastián, which, without these flaws, offered different viability results.
