For decades, Granada was an electoral stronghold for the socialists, a trend that began to reverse at the beginning of this decade. In the regional elections of 2018, the PSOE secured four deputies compared to three for the Popular Party. However, in the 2022 elections, the PP achieved a resounding victory with six provincial parliamentarians, while the PSOE could only retain four.
This dynamic was not limited to regional elections. In the general elections of 2019, the PSOE won in Granada with three deputies, surpassing the PP's two. Nevertheless, in 2023, the results were inverted, granting three representatives to the populars and two to the socialists.
Currently, there are no apparent reasons for a radical shift in voter sentiment. The populars are confident in their clear advantage, while the socialists, though not officially acknowledging it, are aware that they are not starting as favorites. This situation is attributed, in part, to their own wear and tear in the Andalusian territory and, in part, to that of the central Government.
“"Socialist sources believe that the case involving the Government delegate in Andalucía is 'amortized.' There is an ongoing investigation, but since not much more has progressed, it will not cost them votes, or not too many."
For the party, retaining its four seats in Andalucía would be a significant achievement, clinging to the hope that the concentration of progressive votes in the PSOE will be replicated, as occurred recently in Castilla y León. The 'Granada battle' at the polls will determine the impact of the wear and tear, which in Granada has had a notable manifestation: the implication of an advisor to the socialist secretary general in the province and Government delegate in Andalucía in the Koldo and Ábalos case.
In the Popular Party, the message is clear: four years of stable government, with the idea that, although perfection may not have been achieved, no major problems have been created either. The PSOE attempts to capitalize on concerns about Healthcare, but the populars have responded by arguing that the cuts predate their administration. Within the party, it is believed that this issue will not significantly impact them.
The head of the PP list in Granada is the current Minister of Development, who enjoys the full confidence of the regional president. Her objective is to repeat the six parliamentarians obtained in 2022, a crucial result to prevent Vox from jeopardizing the populars' absolute majority.
Meanwhile, Vox secured almost 65,000 votes and two seats in the last regional elections in Granada. Although the party aims for a third seat, surpassing twenty percent of the votes and overtaking the PSOE, they acknowledge it is a complex challenge. The party is currently experiencing internal tranquility, and its candidate has been appointed by the national executive committee, opting for the spokesperson of the municipal group in Granada.
To the left of the PSOE, the Por Andalucía coalition, which brings together seven formations such as Izquierda Unida, Sumar, and Podemos, will present its candidate. On the other hand, Adelante Andalucía will also have its own list.
